Security Implications of a Possible Peace Talks with Taliban

While the security condition in Afghanistan is getting worse, some officials in NATO and the UN have said that military means is not going to work to deal with the challenge, and there should be a negotiation with the insurgents. In the last three weeks, news about negotiation between the Afghan government and the Taliban has been circulating in the international and local media. Saudi Arabia is reported to have been mediating the talks. However, the peace talks are reported to be directed towards primarily securing Pakistan against Islamic militancy, by moving the Taliban into the Afghan political process rather than providing a thorough resolution to the problem in Afghanistan. The security situation in Pakistan has certainly affected the region and any resolution to securing Pakistan seems to be a legitimate effort by international actors. However, the concern on the Afghan side remains as to at what cost to Afghanistan should this happen, and is the resolution really aimed at stabilizing Afghanistan or is it proposed to bring back Pakistani control over the Islamic militant organizations?

Islamic militancy that enjoyed a great deal of support in Pakistan has now turned to a serious threat to the country itself. Attack on the Marriott Hotel in Islamabad was just one sign of a growing instability that has seriously worried Pakistan and its important international allies. Pakistan is at war with the Taliban in Swat and Bajaur and this, according to some Pakistani politicians should not have happened. The Sydney Morning Herald quoted Tariq Azim a former minister in the government of Pervez Musharraf saying “The majority of the people of Pakistan do not see it as our war. We are fighting for somebody else and we are suffering because of that.”[1] The former Pakistani Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif who reportedly had been present at the Taliban –Afghan government Mecca meeting in September has called on the Pakistani government to stop fighting against, and talk with militants with no any precondition. The situation in Pakistan has worried many observers. “A leaked US top-secret National Intelligence Estimate on Pakistan concludes that the country is "on the edge”[2].

The situation in Pakistan has caused Pakistan’s allies –important among them Britain, the US and Saudi Arabia- to think of a resolution to get Pakistan away from the current wave of instability. Apparently, these efforts have materialized in terms of a peace talk initiative between the Afghan government and the Taliban insurgents. The idea behind is to satisfy indigenous Islamic militants’ demands by entering the Taliban into the political process in Afghanistan, and “entice the Taliban away from hard-line elements wedded to the alliance with al Qaeda.”[3]

A diplomat involved in the Afghan government-Taliban talk in Mecca expressed that the concern is Pakistan. Reuters quoted the diplomat saying that “They want to help because Pakistan is frightening. They fear what could happen in Pakistan. This (mediation) is to stabilize Pakistan,"[4] Reuters also reported that top Saudi intelligence officials had worked on the plan to mediate the so called Iftar meeting between the Afghan government representatives and the Taliban already for sometimes till the actual meeting took place in September.

Saudi Arabia has great interest in Pakistan as its close ally in the region, and has been backing the country for a long time to keep its interest by empowering and influencing Sunni Islamic groups in the region, especially in Afghanistan. Now that Pakistan is destabilizing, Saudi Arabia is worried about the consequences of the instability, especially about Bin Ladan's Al-Qaeda –an enemy of the Saudi royal monarchy- taking over the insurgency leadership in the region.

Britain, a historic ally of Pakistan seems to have been working on a plan for Pakistan by taking controversial counterinsurgency policy in Afghanistan. It seems that Britain had noticed the threat in Pakistan earlier than any other of its allies, and started to work closely with some factions of the Taliban despite being at war with them. Tensions emerged between the Afghan government and the British over the latter’s suspicious activities. The Afghan government expelled two high ranking British nationals from Afghanistan, one of them a top British diplomat, in the beginning of 2008. British officers have had a central role in forming a perception of the Taliban insurgents as taking over Afghanistan, and doing so, they have mobilized support for the recognition of Taliban and their incorporation into the government structure in Afghanistan.

The efforts of Pakistan and its allies to bring back Taliban into the power structure in Afghanistan as a strategy to secure Pakistan is now supported by Afghans as well, who in hope of achieving peace, think that the initiative is primarily serving their interest. No doubt that the peace is in the ultimate interest of the Afghans. However, the cost of this deal to the Afghans does not seem to be estimated.

The Pakistani-Saudi-British peace initiative will not be clear of negative security and political implications for Afghanistan. The prospect for stability in Afghanistan seems gloomier from a perspective on regional powers entering Afghanistan along with recognition of Taliban – if it is going to happen, of course. The Britain-Pakistan-Saudi support of the Taliban would drive Iran and India more intensively into the great game and this will ultimately take away central government’s control over the political process in Afghanistan. This would mark a return to a new phase of instability in the country. Iranian Foreign Minister has warned about the consequences of negotiation with Taliban.[5]

If a peace deal does not take Afghanistan as the ultimate priority, and if it is not aimed at securing a democratic Afghanistan, it will not only fail but would initiate another round of instability in the country. We shall not rush for a deal under the current frustration. The Afghan government should take strong side and play a central role in mapping the peace talks as to secure a post-Taliban democratic Afghanistan and prevent regional and international powers from pursuing their interests at the Afghan cost.

While a peace negotiation with Taliban is broadly encouraged in international and local level, the Saudi peace initiative seems to have targets other than primarily securing Afghanistan. Both, Saudi and Britain alongside with the US have vast interest in Pakistan. Although a secure Pakistan is always in the interest of Afghanistan, the Afghan government should make sure that one country’s security is not being built on the cost of another. The peace talk initiative demands deeper analysis and broader evaluation that requires cautious decision making by the Afghan side.

[1] The Sydney Morning Herald, War on Taliban losing support in Pakistan, Oct. 17 2008
[2] Ibid.
[3] Reuters, Andrew Hammond (RIYADH ) Saudi Arabia hosts Taliban talks to bolster , Oct. 15 2008
[4] Ibid.
[5] BBC Persian, Oct. 20 2008, http://www.bbc.co.uk/persian/afghanistan/story/2008/10/081020_wkf-mottaki-taliban.shtml