The Afghan Presidential Election and the New Challenges;

On Saturday 28^th of February 2009, President Hamid Karzai ordered the Independent Election Commission (IEC) of Afghanistan to re-schedule the date for the election, in order to comply with the constitution[1]. The constitution has set the date of elections, 30-60 days before the incumbent president’s five-year term finishes on the 21st of May. The IEC had declared earlier that it could not conduct the election in the given constitutional timeframe due to the current security environment and a lack of technical facilities, including the required $220 million for the election budget. The IEC therefore, decided to postpone the election to 21 of August 2009. The decision by the President Karzai to order the IEC to re-schedule the election date further complicates the political process, generating new challenges and uncertainties.

The presidential decree has generated new discussions on the statue of the Independent Election Commission which is conceived to be run independent of the Afghan government. The new circumstance created by the presidential decree for the IEC puts the Commission in a difficult condition in terms of identifying its status in relation to the executive power. If the IEC complies with the presidential decree, then it might lose the trust of the public as an independent institution and will be regarded as being controlled by the president. This will seriously affect its legitimacy in terms of conducting the election in a fair, free and transparent manner.

In addition to that, the presidential decree creates new concerns about the upcoming election in terms of technical and political capabilities available to conduct the election. Technical observations were the key argument presented by the IEC to postpone the election from March-April to August 2009. The Commission had argued that it had not had the required technical assistance provided to them to conduct the election according to the date identified in the constitution. Under such circumstances, the commission members had argued that they would not be able to assure a free and fair election in order to preserve the rights of the citizens to be able to choose their favorite candidate. If the commission fails to provide a secure and free election environment, the election outcome would lack legitimacy, the election commission members argued.

The UN representative and the US, both supported the idea of postponing the election time. The deteriorating security environment in some parts of Afghanistan convinced the international actors that more work needs to be done before the election takes place which includes providing the necessary security for the election. The US is expected to send more troops to Afghanistan and the IEC was hoping that these troops could be deployed to provide the security in the insecure areas during the election time.

However, the political opponents of President Karzai considered the IEC’s decision a breach of the constitution and accused the president of being behind the decision. They started to pressure the president to hand over his presidential authority to an interim government once his constitutional term for presidency expires in May as stipulated by the constitution. Otherwise, the opponents argued, the government under the incumbent president will be illegal and illegitimate.

For the opposition, postponing the election was a good political chance to utilize against President Karzai in the coming the election. However, it seems that President Karzai realized the risks generated by the IEC’s decision to postpone the election, and ordered the Commission to conduct the election according to the time frame the constitution has set.

It is argued that the presidential order to the IEC to conduct the election according to the provision of the constitution presents the commitment of the president to the constitution. However, the motivations behind the decision are clear for the ordinary Afghans. It is a strategic move for the president to avoid the circumstance for the establishment of an interim government by the oppositions.

There are serious doubts about the possibilities of an earlier election. Given the current technical limitations and political context, it is impossible for the IEC to conduct an earlier election within the time limit identified in the constitution. Furthermore, according to the election law of Afghanistan, the IEC has to declare the exact date of the election 90 days before the Election Day, in order to give potential candidates sufficient time for preparation. Therefore, the IEC can not legally announce an earlier election date as identified in the constitution.

With the legal constraints pertaining to announcing the election date in April, it is obvious that the authorities will have to decide on a later election date. This time around however, the blame will not be placed on President Karzai, but the circumstance. The circumstance can also be utilized by the president to either call for a Loya Jirga mechanism instead of the regular election or, very unlikely, issue a state of emergency after his term finishes on May 21. The first option, most likely to be tried, might allow the president to extent his term, but all these will depend on how the Loya Jirga processes will turn out. It is extremely hard to control the Loya Jirga process.

The presidential decree to conduct the election according to the constitution’s provisions has created new challenges regarding the election. While it puts the Independent Election Commission in a difficult situation in terms of power relation with the office of the president, an early election seems to be unfeasible considering the timeframe, lack of technical capabilities and the legal constraints in regard to the election date. The presidential decree in regard to the election has further complicated the process, initiating a lot of uncertainties about the election. It is yet to be seen how these political decisions might affect the outcome of the election. More importantly however, it seems that whatever decision is made, the issue of legitimacy will dominate any further developments concerning the election process.

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[1] Xinhua, Afghan president calls for election by April , full report available at http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-02/28/content_10918721.htm